As more and more GOP seats look vulnerable, Republicans fear that their House majority might be eliminated on Election Day.
Democrats need to win only 23 seats and the House majority will be on their side. The party is favored by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report to flip 18 GOP seats. The other 29 Republican-held seats are considered toss-ups.
Liz Mair, GOP strategist, said: “Tomorrow is probably going to be pretty unpleasant for Republicans.It’s going to be tough for them to win the House. The overwhelming likelihood is that Democrats retake it.”
“I can always see a scenario where it doesn’t happen on Election Day, but I’m just really struggling based on the numbers I’m looking at. If Republicans aren’t freaking out already, they should probably start freaking out soon,”Mair added.
According to Cook’s final election forecast, Democrats are expected to pick up around 30 to 40 seats – up from 25 to 35 seats last month. Similar prediction was made by Sabato’s Crystall Ball, claiming it to be “somewhere around 30.”
The editors of Sabato’s Crystal BallKyle Kondik and Larry J. Sabato wrote, “We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night. That said, it may be just as likely — or even more likely — that we’re understating the Democrats in the House.”
Retiring Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis), who was attacked by President Donald Trump, publicly acknowledged the GOP might lose the lower chamber.
“It could happen, it could happen. We’re doing very well, and we’re doing really well in the Senate. But, could happen,” Ryan said during a campaign rally. “You know what I say? Don’t worry about it, I’ll just figure it out.”
Cook said Democrats have a possibility of gaining as few as 20 seats and as many as 45 seats.
Nate Silver, election forecaster and founder of Five Thirty Eight, said: “No one should be surprised if [Democrats] only win 19 seats. And no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats.”
GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak said, “I think it’s a 70 percent chance of Democrats taking back the House, just because the map is so large. Democrats have a number of paths to the 23 seats they need.”
While Democrats need to win eight of 30 toss-up races to win the majority, Republicans need 23 to win.