Scientists in the United States are seeing a turning point in the fight against the highly contagious corona mutant Omigran. She said [die Mutante] It’s going back to the speed at which it was shot, ”Ali Mogdat, a public health expert and professor at the University of Washington in Seattle, told the AP News Agency.
University models predict that the number of infections in the United States will peak by January 19 – an average of 1.2 million cases a day. After that, the numbers will drop significantly, “because anyone who can be affected will be affected,” Mogdat says.
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The New York Times reported that U.S. health officials estimated more than 1.4 million new corona cases last Monday, along with late reports from the weekend. New infections, hospitalizations and deaths are increasing every day. As Ali Mogdat announced, a turning point in the corona epidemic now seems unimaginable.
American Model: A lot more people will be affected
Unlike the United States, the UK seems to be turning a corner in the corona epidemic. Earlier this year, the government announced an increase in the number of cases – in some cases more than 200,000 corona cases per day. The seven-day event has been falling again since January 1st. Last Friday alone, 104,000 corona cases were counted. The hospital admission rate is slightly lower.
Despite the positive prognosis, experts point out that the epidemic is unpredictable and cannot produce long-term reports. Lauren Ansel Myers, a Govt-19 model at the University of Texas at Austin, told the AP News Agency that large numbers of people continue to be infected with the corona virus. Nevertheless, he expects the number of corona infections in the United States to peak – which is already this week.
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Similarly, Jack Lemieux, an epidemiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital and professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, says, “I think it’s going to be a tough winter, but the climax [der Omikron-Welle] Looks like it will be in the coming weeks “, Slow is the “Harvard Gazette”.
“The Omikron wave lasted a few weeks in South Africa,” Lemieux continued. “I can only imagine that this wave in the United States will last for a similarly long time, perhaps even a little longer.”
The withdrawal of the Omigran variant marks a new stage in the corona infection. This is somewhat evident at the local level as well. This is how Joseph Allen, a professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, sees the peak of corona exposure in Boston.
Corona exposures are reported to be declining in US cities
On Saturday, Allen predicted a “sharp drop” in virus loads in sewage – a common way of studying the spread of corona in cities. Three days later, he shared another graphic of the virus load in the sewers of the east coast city of the United States: “It’s happening as expected.”
“Waste water indicates a steep slope,” says Dr. Shira Doran, epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center in Boston, In an interview with GBH News. “That means we hope hospital admissions and deaths will decrease.”
Another indicator of the theory of the two experts is the official corona numbers of the city of Boston. These have been declining daily since the beginning of January. “We hope this will bring relief to the health system and health workers in the Boston area,” said Howard Professor Joseph Allen. However, the number of hospital admissions in the city is increasing.
New York City seems to have already passed the reported peak of the epidemic. The city administration says the number of corona cases has dropped since the beginning of this year. Last week there were an average of 32,000 cases a day. A week ago there were almost 10,000 cases. Hospital admissions are also declining. However, the city warns that cases could still be reported.
Chicago paints a similar picture: in a ventilated city, the number of corona has been declining since the beginning of the year. Compared to the previous week, the average daily fresh corona infection has decreased by eleven percent. The number of hospital admissions is still rising, but not like the last few days of 2021.
U.S. researchers: The Omigron wave has not yet reached all states
On the other hand, there is a significant decrease in the number of corona patients admitted to the US capital hospital. About 3.9 percent of the victims are in a hospital in Washington, DC. Due to the high number of corona cases, it is still admitted to the hospital in large numbers. But the number of corona cases in the US capital has also dropped significantly since the beginning of this year.
By the summer of 2021, nearly 20 percent of corona victims in Washington, D.C., were hospitalized – more than 30 percent, in the middle of the first corona wave in the spring of 2020.
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Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Measurements and Assessment at the University of Washington, said the Omigron wave peaks “vary from state to state.” American Fast Magazine. “Some states have not yet begun – the Omigron wave in Montana has not yet begun. But we expect peak values between mid – January and mid – February.”
The British Minister sees the “best times” coming
If the US forecasts are applied to Great Britain, it means that the peak of Omigron cases is permanently surpassed in the island state as well. At the beginning of the year, the total number of confirmed infections with mutants rose to 246,780. Clinics reported a massive staff shortage due to isolation.
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“We see a significant drop in cases in the UK, but I would like to see them go further back before we know what happened in South Africa will happen here as well,” he said. Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia in the UK, told the AP News Agency.
Britain’s Housing Minister Michael Covey told Sky News: “We are moving towards a situation where we can say we can live with Kovit.” The Tory politician sees the “best time” coming.
The incidence of corona in London has been declining since December
Dr. David Heyman, former head of the World Health Organization’s epidemiology unit, told the AP news agency that Britain was “closer than any other country to an end to the epidemic”. He also sees Kovit-19 slowly but surely developing into a local disease.
London seems to be a little ahead of the country’s progress. Government data show a decline in the number of newly registered corona cases in the British capital – since December 22. The seven-day event saw 24,000 new infections per 100,000 population drop to less than 20,000 on Jan. 4.
“We expect case numbers [in Großbritannien] The decline next week may already be in London, “said Neil Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who told the BBC in early January.” Other regions could follow in three weeks. ” An epidemic that reaches such a high number cannot produce this number. Everlasting. “
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Omigran cases in Germany are reported late
It is not yet known when the peak of omigran infections will reach Germany. The new corona epidemic has reached new heights in the Federal Republic of Germany. The Robert Koch Institute puts the total number of cases of dementia at 62,893 in the first week of the year – an increase of more than 20,000 cases compared to the previous week.
According to the RKI, there may be several days or weeks between the first report of the corona case and the specification of the Omigron variant. U.S. virologist Anthony Fossie warned Tuesday: “With the extraordinary and unprecedented performance of the sensation, Omigron will eventually find almost everyone.” (Mid AB)
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