December 10, 2022

Raven Tribune

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Conflict between Poland and Belarus: Putin threatens a war

Alexander Lukashenko ignites peace in Europe: Belarusian dictator threatens EU with immigrants and openly threatens war. It would have been impossible without the support of Vladimir Putin.

He spits big tones and refers to the strong man: the ruler of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko It is for this purpose alone that he puts pressure on the EU with immigrants to be allowed to fly to his country. But he did not stop this treacherous game of playing on the backs of the needy. Lukashenko insults Europeans as “idiots” and openly threatens the West with a war. Russia Stands on the side of the Belarusian regime.

The current crisis in Eastern Europe is not just an artificially created refugee crisis. The “last dictator of Europe” is endangering peace in Europe and, with the support of Vladimir Putin, has quickly created a situation that could get out of control.

Photo series with 15 pictures

Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko: The Belarusian ruler is at the mercy of Russia. (Source: imago images)

In doing so, he puts thousands at risk of death – threatening to freeze up to 4,000 people in the jungles of the Polish-Belarusian border region. They promised a way to Europe. They were flown to Belarus from Istanbul, Dubai and Damascus airports. The Belarusian regime took them to EU borders, a no-man’s land. People there are fed, but Lukashenko does not let them go home. Conclusion: They have no back and forth.

The question arises: what do Lukashenko and Putin want to achieve with this? And who is the driving force?

Lukashenko is in fact so politically weak that he cannot allow the controversy with the EU to escalate. After allegations of election irregularities Belarus And to violently suppress the struggles against him, the power of the dictator depends on the mercy of Russia. President of Russia Vladimir Putin The little neighbor is in control of the country, Lukashenko his puppet. It is unlikely that the dictator did not gain the support of the Kremlin.

For Lukashenko, the expansion makes little sense

Belarus, Grotno: Immigrants gathered in a fire on the Belarus-Poland border.  The temperature is below zero.  (Source: dpa)Belarus, Grotno: Immigrants gathered in a fire on the Belarus-Poland border. The temperature is below zero. (Source: dpa)

Lukashenko probably wanted revenge, but beyond that, the confrontation gave him little strategic meaning. Following the violence against protesters in Belarus and the hijacking of a Ryanair plane in May to arrest an activist, the EU decided to allow his rule. But the effect is small. Even for Lukashenko, who is considered irrational, revenge alone is unlikely to have brought about the crisis. In addition, the dictator cannot expect the EU to respond to this crude attempt – it is a great loss to the Europeans.

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It is about money, because Moscow and Minsk compare the current situation with the EU refugee agreement with Turkey. After all, the Turkish president intimidated and extorted money Recep Tayyip Erdogan The EU handled and paid for the refugees. But the comparison was wrong, because people fled to Turkey from the civil war in Syria, and Erdogan did not impress them with false promises like Lukashenko.

What are Putin’s intentions?

So there must be other reasons – most of them are in Moscow. Putin believes he can benefit from the expansion in Eastern Europe, as opposed to the Belarusian regime. If it were not in the interests of the Kremlin, there would have been no conflict.

Several strategic considerations may play a role:

  • Putin And Lukashenko Use dramatic images to bring out the Western Understanding human rights To be portrayed hypocritically. The unresolved migration issues in the EU are clearly putting pressure on the European community. For Putin and Lukashenko, this is a signal to their own people: look here, the West is constantly criticizing us, but it is not doing itself any good. It has long been part of the Kremlin’s strategy of undermining the West on human rights issues.
  • Putin likes the old ones Zones of Soviet influence Reset. As for Belarus, the Russian president is showing that he will not abandon his allies – even if they act headless and inhumane.
    Polish police protect border fence: There have been repeated turning points in the last few days.  (Source: Reuters)Polish police protect border fence: There have been repeated turning points in the last few days. (Source: Reuters)
  • The conflict between Belarus and the European Union is strong, and Lukashenko is getting closer to Russia. The Economic and security dependent Lukashenko from the Kremlin is taking control of the neighboring country Putin.
  • That has been the case since the annexation of Crimea EU sanctions against Russia. The Russian economy has thus been hit hard, and Putin really wants to get rid of punitive measures. His influence over Belarus is a bargaining chip.
  • For Putin, the crisis is coming at the right time. The home economy has suffered, and the Kremlin has not brought the corona crisis under control. As a result, Putin’s reputation suffers, and the conflict with the European Union is one of his Diversionary maneuvers.
  • In the end, the Western focus continues to be on you Global power struggle with China. This is against the Russian self-image of a superpower. That is why Moscow hopes to remind people of how influential Russia is geopolitically.
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Tens of thousands of armed men confront each other

The game of Putin and Lukashenko is very dangerous by any means. Poland More than 15,000 armed soldiers have set up a security zone along the border. Lukashenko’s soldiers are also stationed on the Belarusian side, some of whom are helping immigrants cross the border fence. It has been heard from Polish security circles that Belarusian soldiers have already entered the Polish border.

This makes the situation very explosive. Putin has already sent two bombers into Belarusian airspace, but he and Lukashenko certainly do not want an armed conflict.

However, this may soon get out of hand: if a Belarusian soldier is shot in the territory of Poland and in Poland, it can call for a NATO alliance lawsuit if it so desires.

Military helicopter circling the Polish-Belarusian border: Poland has set up a border fence to protect the EU's outer border from the influx of refugees.  (Source: Reuters)Military helicopter circling the Polish-Belarusian border: Poland has set up a border fence to protect the EU’s outer border from the influx of refugees. (Source: Reuters)

Suddenly Germany will also be caught in an expansion cycle that will be hard to stop. Even Russia cannot avoid acting as a defense force for the Lukashenko regime. The threat of war is real.

Merkel is not naive

President Angela Merkel has also acknowledged this. On Tuesday, he intervened and called on Putin to use his influence in the Belarusian regime to expand. It is safe to say that the president knew in advance that Lukashenko would not act without Putin’s support and that the Kremlin leader would give him a basket. But Merkel drew attention to Russia, making it clear that the Kremlin holds the key to a solution – and is responsible for the humanitarian catastrophe.

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This increases the pressure on Moscow. But the EU must establish order in its own order. Therefore, the Chancellor reminded that human rights must be respected. You have to solve the problem “this is humanity”, he said. “Unfortunately it doesn’t do that right now,” he added. “On the other hand, it is important that the EU can protect its external borders.” These are words in the direction of the Polish government, which will not allow journalists, aid agencies or the EU border security agency Frontex to enter the security zone.

Near the Polish-Belarusian border: Polish police officers control traffic on the edge of the security zone.  (Source: dpa)Near the Polish-Belarusian border: Polish police officers control traffic on the edge of the security zone. (Source: dpa)

Brussels fears that Polish repression will help the campaign from Russia and Belarus. Given the plight of immigrants, it is reasonable to worry that more people will cross the border fence for their needs. Hundreds of people have done it in the last few nights.

There are no simple solutions to the problem. The EU continues to build the border fence and thereby the European fortress. In 2015, when Hungary built such a facility, it was still a scandal – six years later there was no political opposition to it.

In addition, the European Union wants to adopt new sanctions against the Belarusian regime and the airlines that bring immigrants to Belarus. On the one hand, Russia is excluded; On the other hand, punitive measures will not be discussed at the EU foreign ministers’ meeting until Monday. For many asylum seekers, it may be too late.

On the contrary, the current conflict shows that there is a new revenge for the fact that there is no agreement within the EU on how to collectively deal with the flow of refugees. This threatens society and allows dictators like Lukashenko to seriously threaten peace in Europe.