November 26, 2022

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Russian attack warning: ‘Biden ups the ante’


Interview

Status: 02/14/2022 7:54 pm

Will Russia invade Ukraine on February 16? America’s firm warning has angered the people of the world. U.S. expert Overhaus says in an interview who it is aimed at and what risk Biden takes.

tagesschau.de: Warning of a Russian offensive with the name of a specific date – How do you rate this move by the US leadership?

Marco Overhaus: It is very unusual for the United States to issue such strong warnings, predicting a specific date for a possible attack and linking them. The main maneuvers of the Russian and Belarusian troops are scheduled to last until February 20 and this is largely related, which is why this date was given. Of course, I can not say what exact secret service innovations are behind it.

Per person

Dr. Marco Overhas works for the Scientific and Political Foundation in Berlin. On the US research team, security and safety policy are one of his key areas.

Keep an eye on your own allies

tagesschau.de: Can you imagine that one of the goals of the Biden administration was to name a possible date and prevent the Russians from attacking that day?

Overhouse: I hope the main address of this warning is not Russia. The United States and NATO countries have already issued demands and warnings to Russia. That is why our own NATO allies can be an important address.

If Russia invades Ukraine, NATO and the EU will work together. In the wake of this stern warning, no NATO country and no EU member can avoid carefully considering what should happen in such a case.

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tagesschau.de: Does it primarily refer to Germany, which has been repeatedly criticized in recent weeks?

Overhouse: Germany is certainly the main address for US information. Take Nord Stream 2 for example, Germany’s position is not secure in all respects. But other NATO allies in the south and west do not see Russia as their biggest threat. However, with US caution, NATO is paying full attention to the situation in Ukraine.

“Show Red Line to Putin”

tagesschau.de: Will the experience of Russia annexing Crimea in 2014 using unmarked players play a role here?

Overhouse: The comparison with 2014 will not be about the “little green men” at this time, but rather about the apparent Russian occupation with the announcement. However, many in the Biden administration believe that 2014 may have played a role in US strategic considerations, at least in retrospect, that NATO did not act decisively enough, that Russia was detained by the hybrid war, and that it was only relatively moderate. Sanctions were then only a relatively moderate expansion of NATO’s military presence in the east. At the moment, the United States wants to act fast and decisively, showing Putin the red line.

tagesschau.de: Does the US want to make clear to the Russian people who the occupiers were during the war?

Overhouse: From the outside, it is difficult to predict what news will be received by the Russian people. As for the United States, it’s about getting ready for further expansion – events that involve NATO countries directly. That is why the United States and other countries have sent additional troops to Eastern Europe. On the other hand, the United States has made it clear that it is not ready for war with Russia over Ukraine.

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tagesschau.de: Which states are the main concerns for potential further increase?

Overhouse: Of course, the main focus is on the three Baltic countries, but also on Poland, Romania and other Southeastern allies. In its “draft agreement” sent to NATO, Russia demanded that NATO reduce its presence in the Eastern Alliance to May 1997, among other things, in consideration of security guarantees – that is, to end it effectively. . This request could and could not be fulfilled by NATO.

Danger to the domestic political agenda

tagesschau.de: Biden wanted to focus on domestic politics and dealing with China. Now he has to deal with Russia. Is it a political danger to him?

Overhouse: Biden now takes a risk if he raises the perspective on the American perspective. He came to power with the goal and promise of re-establishing the United States economically and structurally – the slogan of “foreign policy for the middle class.” A crisis in Eastern Europe is not effective here – it is a distraction from the domestic political agenda. Many Americans reject the role of world policeman for their country – that is why Donald Trump was elected in 2016, and it continues to be popular.

The chances of an active foreign and security policy are slim for the US president. But if Biden does nothing, he will face passive charges. At the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference, he announced that the United States was back on the world stage. In this sense he has to lose credibility in foreign policy here as well.

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tagesschau.de: How do you see it: is there still room for diplomacy?

Overhouse: The room for maneuvering for diplomats has now been significantly reduced. But that does not mean the situation is hopeless. This is very difficult because the Russian leadership has gone too far with their threats and demands. It is difficult to imagine how Putin could have stepped aside without losing face. But the United States has now raised it as well. It has a pulling effect, which makes it difficult for all parties to find a diplomatic way to save face.

Conversation Accord Arates, tagesschau.de