Turbulence in the western Caribbean direction remains poorly organized but Tropical Storm Bonny is still highly suspected later today, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“If I had a fleeting look at conventional satellite data, I would think the system was really a tropical storm,” said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at NHC. “There is a large sphere of convection near the center, along with banding features that form in most quadrants of the system. However, the microwave data do not show a low-level structure, with only a broad curvature and no clear indications of a well-defined center.”
National Hurricane Center 8 Heavy rain and stormy tropical winds are likely to start late tonight for islands in the southern Caribbean in what meteorologists are calling a possible second tropical cyclone, meteorologists said Wednesday. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Air Force One confirmed that the system had not yet acquired regulation to classify it as a tropical storm with no center of circulation.
The system is located 185 miles east-southeast of Curacao, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph moving west at 30 mph, as of an 8 a.m. update. And while the system has remained disorganized, hurricane specialists suspect it may change over the next 12 hours.
“One of the reasons the system hasn’t been able to shut down circulation so far is because the speed is too high,” Blake said. But models show the turbulence is stable in the evening. After that, the system should stop condensing for two days. By Friday, Blake said, he could be jumping again.
As of 8 a.m., a tropical storm warning was issued for Trinidad and Tobago; Grenada and Dependencies; Venezuelan Islands, Islas de Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua; and the islands of Bonaire, Curaçao, Aruba and parts of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.
The system has tropical gale force winds that extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of the system. If named, it would be Tropical Storm Bonnie. NHC gives it a 90% chance of forming in the next five days.
“On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula in Colombia early Thursday, and over the southwestern Caribbean on Friday,” the NHC.
Meteorologists are also watching for two other disturbances that have potential to become a tropical system.
The turbulence zone increased rainfall and thunderstorms overnight and over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Further development is possible, but the system is currently still unregulated. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of forming in a tropical system in the next two to five days as it slowly drifts westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico and toward Texas.
“It could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before moving inland,” the NHC said. “Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along parts of the Texas coast later this week.”
Also, a tropical wave over the tropical mid-Atlantic Ocean produces unregulated showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to touch another tropical wave later this week and could develop. The NHC gave the wave a 10% chance of becoming a depression in the next two days and 30% in the next five days.
If any of the systems are developed, it would be the second system of the season after Tropical Storm Alex, which dumped nearly one foot of rain over parts of Florida earlier this month.
After Bonnie, the next names will be Colin and Danielle.
A tropical system can be called a tropical depression without becoming a tropical storm condition. It was not named until the system withstands winds of 39 mph and was not named a hurricane until it withstands winds of 74 mph.
The 2022 season runs from June 1 to November. The year is expected to be another 30 years above normal for storms following the 30 designated storms for 2020 and 21 of 2021.
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