Sunday 21 November 2021
“We know what happened”
The United States fears an attack on Ukraine
Russia is said to have amassed 100,000 troops in eastern Ukraine. According to a media report, the United States fears another attack in the western part of the country in December. Kiev and Berlin, however, interpret the situation somewhat differently.
The West is very concerned about the deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, but according to a media report there are differences in assessing Moscow’s motives. While the United States fears a “new Russian offensive on Ukraine as it did in 2014,” security circles in Berlin and Kiev are more likely to assume that Russia will try to intimidate them, according to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) report.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blingen on Saturday reiterated Washington’s fears. His country “pursues Russia’s extraordinary military operations on the border with Ukraine” with “real concern,” said Blinken.
The US Secretary of State has said that Washington does not know the motives of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “But we know what happened in the past.” Russia has previously called it a “fake provocation by Ukraine or another country” and used it as an excuse to annex the Crimean peninsula.
According to the FAS, Washington fears an attack in December when the ground in Eastern Europe freezes and tanks stop sinking in the mud. In Berlin, too, Putin’s rhetoric was heard last week when he spoke of “red lines” and “escalation” by US and NATO military maneuvers in the Black Sea.
According to the report, Berlin security sources said Russia would no longer want to tolerate routine bilateral exercises between the United States or Great Britain and Ukraine, as well as the supply of US anti-tank weapons. Germany did not see the serious danger of war.
Damage or real danger?
The Ukrainian leadership thinks as the FAS writes: this refers to the statement of Ruslan Demchenko, the first deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, which states that “the risk of invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine is currently increasing” but can not release any statement about the “high level of military production of the Kremlin”.
For example, Demsenko was quoted as saying that the maneuvers carried out in October and November were “less in number and intensity” when Russia was already harassing Ukraine by sending troops, compared to the spring. In his view, the military leadership uses the “hybrid war” method, in which the enemy is dealt with by the “threat of military invasion”.
NATO allies and Ukraine have been accusing Russia of provoking tensions by stationing large troops on the Ukrainian border for several days and preparing for an invasion of Ukraine.
In early March, Russia deployed thousands of troops, heavy military equipment, naval vessels and air force troops in large numbers near the Ukrainian border and in the region of the annexed Crimean peninsula. Weeks later, Moscow finally announced the alleged maneuver and withdrew its troops.
Russia now has 114,000 troops in eastern Ukraine, according to Kiev. About 32,000 troops are stationed on the annexed Crimean peninsula.
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